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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.