Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."